"River" Page

There are not many situations when we are interested in different turn odds, so I decided not to add the “Turn” page. Adding such a page would not give us much useful information, but would greatly increase the program’s working time. That is why we go directly from flop to river. At the “River” page you can see the probabilities for pocket cards to improve to showdown and probabilities for the improvement for flop combinations.

You can see several variants of your cards improvement to river:

  1. Pocket pair to set,
  2. Pocket pair to full-house,
  3. Pocket pair to quad,
  4. Pocket unpaired to pair (all variants, including pair on the table),
  5. Pocket unpaired to two pairs (all variants, including two pairs on the table),
  6. Pocket unpaired to trips (all variants, including trips on the table),
  7. Pocket unpaired to full-house,
  8. Suited pocket cards to flush,
  9. Off-suited pocket cards to flush,
  10. Flopped set to full-house (both sets and trips on flop, excluding trips on board),
  11. Flopped set to quad (both sets and trips on flop, excluding trips on board),
  12. Flopped two pairs to full-house (for non-paired pocket cards only),
  13. Flush-draw on flop to flush (for suited pocket cards only).

Here I must make a number of comments. First of all, you have probably paid attention that there are no straights in the list. We have two problems with straights. First – the Tracker database structure doesn’t allow finding straights using SQL requests; it would require a great number of computations to find straights and straight-draws, hence the working time of the program would increase at least 10 times. Second – almost each pocket combination has its own unique probability to build a straight making, therefore, exact computations almost impossible.

When a player has different kinds of high combinations (like set and flush) only the highest combination will be taken into account. On the other hand, the chances for improvement are taken into account for this very combination, so it will not increase the mistakes. But this problem has further consequences – different pocket cards have different improvement odds. E.g. suited cards have fewer chances to improve to trips as they will make more flushes and some trips will not get into the statistics. To compensate this effect I used weighted average odds for improvements to pair, two pairs and set, taking into account the number of possible combinations and their corresponding improvement odds. I hope I didn’t make big errors with these computations. And the last, small odds to get straight or royal flush are included into flush odds.

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